ARTICLE
The Depression of 2011?
23 Economic Warning Signs from Financial Authorities All Over the Globe
23 Economic Warning Signs from Financial Authorities All Over the Globe
The truth is that we are facing the greatest sovereign debt crisis in modern history. There is no way out of this financial mess that does not include a significant amount of economic pain. When you add mountains of debt to paralyzing fear to strict austerity measures, what do you get? What you get is deflationary pressure and financial markets that seize up. Some of the top financial authorities in the world are warning us that unless something substantial is done, that is exactly what we are going to be seeing as 2010 turns into 2011. Of course some governments around the world could try to put these economic problems off for a while by printing and borrowing even more money, but we all know by now that only makes the long-term problems even worse. For now, however, it seems as though most governments are opting for the austerity measures that the IMF seems determined to cram down the throats of everyone. So what will austerity measures mean for the global economy? Think "stimulus" in reverse. Yes, things are going to get messy. It looks like there is going to be a great deal of economic fear and a great deal of economic pain in 2011 and the years beyond that. So are we headed for "the depression of 2011"? Well, let's hear what some of the top financial experts in the world have to say.
"We are still in the middle of this crisis and there is more trouble ahead of us, even if there is a recovery. During the great depression the economy contracted between 1929 and 1933, there was the beginning of a recovery, but then a second recession from 1937 to 1939. If you don't address the issues, you risk having a double-dip recession and one which is at least as severe as the first one."
"Dealing with a banking crisis was difficult enough, but at least there were public-sector balance sheets on to which the problems could be moved. Once you move into sovereign debt, there is no answer; there's no backstop."
"The current crisis facing the euro is the biggest test Europe has faced for decades, even since the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957."
"Now people are questioning if the euro will even exist in three years."
"The crisis in Greece is going to spread to Spain and it’s going to be very difficult to deal with. They are bailing out debt with more debt and it isn’t sustainable. It’s a wonderful scenario for gold."
#6) LEAP/E2020:
"LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009, and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures."
"Whatever yardstick you care to choose – share-price moves, the rates at which banks lend to each other, measures of volatility – we are now in a similar position to 2008."
"The next financial tsunami is emerging and will ripple to America."
"The green shoots of recovery have now turned into poison ivy. The abyss has again been filled with more debt and more fiat currency. In the process the Fed and now the ECB have lost all credibility."
"The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history."
"The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly."
"The default rate for commercial mortgages held by banks in the first quarter hit its highest level since at least 1992 and is expected to surpass that by year-end and peak in 2011, according to a study by Real Capital Analytics."
"It's not hard to see Japan-style deflation emerging if the economy stays weak."
#14) Stan Humphries, Chief Economist for Zillow.com:
#14) Stan Humphries, Chief Economist for Zillow.com:
"Anyone expecting a robust rebound in the housing market ... will be sorely disappointed."
#15) Fox News:
"As the national debt clock ticked past the ignominious $13 trillion mark overnight, Congress pressed to pass a host of supplemental spending bills."
#16) Bloomberg:
"The U.S. government’s Aaa bond rating will come under pressure in the future unless additional measures are taken to reduce projected record budget deficits, according to Moody’s Investors Service Inc."
#17) Peter Schiff:
"When creditors ultimately decide to curtail loans to America, U.S. interest rates will finally spike, and we will be confronted with even more difficult choices than those now facing Greece. Given the short maturity of our national debt, a jump in short-term rates would either result in default or massive austerity. If we choose neither, and opt to print money instead, the run-a-way inflation that will ensue will produce an even greater austerity than the one our leaders lacked the courage to impose. Those who believe rates will never rise as long as the Fed remains accommodative, or that inflation will not flare up as long as unemployment remains high, are just as foolish as those who assured us that the mortgage market was sound because national real estate prices could never fall."
"City budget shortfalls will become more severe over the next two years as tax collections catch up with economic conditions. These will inevitably result in new rounds of layoffs, service cuts, and canceled projects and contracts."
"Faced with continued budgetary constraints, school leaders across the nation are forced to consider an unprecedented level of layoffs that would negatively impact economic recovery and deal a devastating blow to public education."
#20) Mike Whitney:
"Without another boost of stimulus, the economy will lapse back into recession sometime by the end of 2010."
"There is big money making big bets that at a minimum we we'll have a recession if not a depression that could last for years."
#22) John P. Hussman, Ph.D.:
"In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during the coming year. This is not certainty, but the evidence that we've observed in the equity market, labor market, and credit markets to-date is simply much more consistent with the recent advance being a component of a more drawn-out and painful deleveraging cycle."
"Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him."
REACTION
After all that has been said who would not believe that we are facing an economic collapse this year and even more of these in the next years to come. Throughout the world we have been facing the constant flow of economic crisis and the fear of future difficulties continue to haunt our worldwide economy. From the rise of prices to the sky rocketing increase our debts, the list keeps going on and sooner or later we might not be able to make it out of the list of issues that has piled up in our "to solve list". I admit that it's easy to talk about things like this and maybe critic our nation's leaders for messing up, but hey, their jobs aren't that easy to do. We could protest all we want such as what's been happening in our country during oil price hikes but the thing is it's not that easy to lower the prices. We can't control when prices go up or down. Nor can we really do anything about it. Money concerns are tough to beat.
The other primary ingredient of depression is fear. As they say, we fear the unknown. Fear is also "False Expectations Appearing Real". We can't blame people for having such fears. With all that's happening to countries throughout the world and the growing crisis in our economy, one cannot help but fear for the future. Tendency is that we would make drastic actions to face those fears and that often would do no good and make matters much worst. When people are faced with critical decisions they often tend do make those drastic actions the lead to more problems. We can read from the article some comments of financial authorities regarding the upcoming or already happening depression and economic collapse. If one were to read these we could not help but worry and feel the fear of the uncertain future. If we are to dwell on those fears surely we couldn’t do anything about it. But if we face this as an opportunity for us to increase our capabilities to overcome the challenges and that we can still make a better economy, surely we can do it.Over all, I think if we change the way we live we could have a chance of rising from these economic crisis that beset us. As economics is somewhat related to managing the household, how we manage our individual families and homes will determine the strength of the future generation to overcome the crisis much better than how we are doing at present. It would give the future leaders to manage the economy better and hopefully end the crisis. It’s about what we do about it than worrying about it.
